Jennifer He, Assistant Professor at the University of Calgary, talks about flood frequency analysis and forecasting in non-stationary scenarios, with a focus on Banff, Calgary, and Near Mouth. She considers the predictability of floods and the influence of climate change.
Flood generation mechanisms are discussed, such as intense rainfall, snow melt, and ice jams, and she compares monthly peak flows between Banff, Calgary, and Near Mouth, over the course of a year. Flood generation mechanisms were completed and explained. For example, the relationship between annual snowfall and annual peak flow between Banff and Calgary is discussed. She analysed the annual peak flow (m3/s) for Banff, Calgary and Near Mouth to evaluate possible climate change impacts, and showed there was a significant downward trend at Banff and Calgary, and an insignificant upward trend at Near Mouth.
While she determined there have been significant increases in average temperatures in these three locations from December through to the end of March over multiple years, she concluded the impacts of climate change are highly complicated, and a comprehensive analysis approach is needed to assess it further.
The results of flood frequency analysis show its sensitivity to unusual data points, and such uncertainty could hinder its applications. Flood modelling and forecasting future work includes an approach for model calibration and verification - especially for modelling multiple mechanisms, and more reliable short and long lead time forecasting. This presentation was a part of the CWRA Alberta Branch Annual Conference, March 2014.
